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GBPUSD
Dow Jones
Dow Jones
Waves Cycle :
The Dow still in Stock Bubbles for so long
expected almost more one decade as we always says the waves cycle aprox
9-13 years which started in Dec 2008 and expected to end or becomes
near end by (2008+13 Years) =2021 !! don't surprize !! Expected to end
wave (5) @ levels 25000 and higher.
Waves Structure :
We are in structure of wave 4 of (3) which expected to be (sideway wave) contracting triangle to alt with wave 2 (sharp wave).
Waves Targets :
Wave 4 targets :
Current : 17561
1st Wave C : 16290
2nd Wave D : 17328
3rd Wave E : 16611
Wave 5 of (3)Target : 20623
Goodluck ,
Wagdy F. Taher
Financial Market Analyst
GOLD
GOLD
January 11, 2016
|
Wagdy F. Taher
Fundamentally gold faced many global economy changes in 2015 without serious reaction in any direction. for example ;
-
Swiss National Bank, by removing the boarder fire of 1.20 Fra/Eur.
-
European Central Bank (ECB) announced QE program.
-
Greece crisis bailout.
-
ECB negative Interest Rate (ZERO) .
-
US Stock Market continuous its bubbles .
-
US intentions to hike interest rates through whole 2015 which hiked by end of 2015 for first time since 10 years.
-
Oil dramatically drop by 70%
-
Slowdown in china's economic pushing devaluation of Yuan, also stock market crashed Shanghai.
-
The unstable geopolitical environment, i.e Middle East , Ukraine, migration crisis in Europe, terrorist attacks, Ukraine / Russia crises.
-
Added Yuan into its SDR currency basket. .And finally, the Fed hiked interest rates for the first time in almost 10 years.
-
Last China Central bank added 610K ounces to reserves .
Therefore, above
mentioned changes and as well as call it currencies war altogether
courage gold to become a safe heaven if not making reversal to north
direction.
Waves Cycle :
Gold in weekly pattern seen as contracting diagonal looked as Ending Diagonal but the most preffered is Flat Expanded.
The wave of (b) not yet finalized due to :
1 - Wave "c" of (b) not yet complete structure.
And/Or
2
- wave (b) in flat extension break down the level of 138.2% of wave
(a), and lookign for the next level reverse which is 161.8% of wave (a).
Waves Structure :
We are in structure of wave "iv" of c of (b) which expected to reach level 1136 (upper band of contracting diagonal .
Waves Targets :
Wave "iv" targets :
Current : 1103
Current : 1103
1st Wave "v" of 3/C: 1124
2nd Wave (IV of 3 : 1109
3rd Wave (V= 3 : 1136
Good-Luck with my regards,
Wagdy F. Taher
Financial Market Analyst
US Dollar INDEX
US Dollar INDEX
US Dollar INDEX
January 8, 2016
|
Wagdy F. Taher
Today
the 3 stars news NFP will announce within one hour on 1:30 GMT 8th Jan
2016, which is considered as another confirmation for stability of
increase the interest rates for coming session (Mar'16).The forecast for
NFP 200K v/s previous 211K.
Also the Unemployment Rate (Dec) forecast 5% v/s same for previous.Hence, according to our Elliott Waves opinion (point of view) for the US$ Index we expect the both or one will be negative and against US$ Index , hereunder the technical point of view:
Also the Unemployment Rate (Dec) forecast 5% v/s same for previous.Hence, according to our Elliott Waves opinion (point of view) for the US$ Index we expect the both or one will be negative and against US$ Index , hereunder the technical point of view:
Waves Structure :
The
wave down started 100 x till levels 97 is Impulse wave (a) , then
correct by "wxy" 335 - 335 structure complete wave (b) , followed by 1st
wave in (c) "i" and mostly finish the wave "ii" .Therefore we expect to
complete the 5 waves structure of wave (c) at level of 95.13 - 94.70 ,
taking consideration the levels of wave "iii" @ 96.18 & wave "iv" @
97.05..
Good-Luck with my regards,
Wagdy F. Taher
EURUSD
EURUSD
Before reviewing the EURUSD waves lets go throught the current circumstances in Euro zone with recent ECB "Draghi announcement" along with FED decision of stay of interest rate in JAN 2016. from the other side the impact of Japan Bank of negative Rate for 1st time .
Europian Central Bank :
In last announce for Draghi concentrate that there is no limite for ECB tools to deploy, which mean will continue in direction of plunge euro rate against major currencies situation whatsoever in current trend-down or after correction , hence the new low below 1.0460 will achieve sooner or later.
The current bubbles popup recently in Euro is blaming Draghi for weakness the EURO which mean we may see little positive in Euro and flowup on water at least for braves , by other meaning we may see a correction for EUR . This is in view of EURO index power .
FED Reserve Bank:
The last interest rates hiked in DEC 2016 and according to the minutes of meeting and announcements by Yellen or FED's members they agreed in one tone that the interest rates increase will be gradually to review the data output accordingly, therefore we expect the next excersise for interest rate based on quarterly will be on March 2016, but recent data were not encouraging enough specially the GDP declines 4thQ along with negative trade balance , moreover the price index, taking consideration the Un-employment rates is not whole important issue in economic data, it is just tools or indicators to measure the health economic which ended by GDP.
Finally , the US Economic is not courage for USD index to fly at least till end of 1st Q 2016 such data will impact for coming months negatively till coming interest decision March 2016.
Japan Central Bank :
The impact of Japan Bank for negative rate decision will translated to about 10 trillion to 30 trillion yen initially and apply as new reserves, but the question is it will Japan Bank will concentrate on USD or maroj currencies basket (EUR, GBP, CHF...etc) as seen on Friday 29th Jan'16 the only effected by Japan decision is USD !!.
Again , what it the relation between Japan Bank decision of negative Interst Rate and EURUSD ? The answer need to concentrate more on other pairs reflection i.e EURJPY & also GBP/JPY if seen same bull-back like USDJPY then the affect of Japan decision will be neglected on EURUSD , otherwise, we may see more downtrend on EURUSD.
Elliott Waves :
After concidering the option above we may see FEB till MAR little Weakness in USD as index in view of not ECB not offering the kind of new tools Draghi talking about ! .
Hence out of fundamental we placed 3 scanarios in EURUSD and will catch the joining waves and trade on it .
Scenario 1 :
Europian Central Bank :
In last announce for Draghi concentrate that there is no limite for ECB tools to deploy, which mean will continue in direction of plunge euro rate against major currencies situation whatsoever in current trend-down or after correction , hence the new low below 1.0460 will achieve sooner or later.
The current bubbles popup recently in Euro is blaming Draghi for weakness the EURO which mean we may see little positive in Euro and flowup on water at least for braves , by other meaning we may see a correction for EUR . This is in view of EURO index power .
FED Reserve Bank:
The last interest rates hiked in DEC 2016 and according to the minutes of meeting and announcements by Yellen or FED's members they agreed in one tone that the interest rates increase will be gradually to review the data output accordingly, therefore we expect the next excersise for interest rate based on quarterly will be on March 2016, but recent data were not encouraging enough specially the GDP declines 4thQ along with negative trade balance , moreover the price index, taking consideration the Un-employment rates is not whole important issue in economic data, it is just tools or indicators to measure the health economic which ended by GDP.
Finally , the US Economic is not courage for USD index to fly at least till end of 1st Q 2016 such data will impact for coming months negatively till coming interest decision March 2016.
Japan Central Bank :
The impact of Japan Bank for negative rate decision will translated to about 10 trillion to 30 trillion yen initially and apply as new reserves, but the question is it will Japan Bank will concentrate on USD or maroj currencies basket (EUR, GBP, CHF...etc) as seen on Friday 29th Jan'16 the only effected by Japan decision is USD !!.
Again , what it the relation between Japan Bank decision of negative Interst Rate and EURUSD ? The answer need to concentrate more on other pairs reflection i.e EURJPY & also GBP/JPY if seen same bull-back like USDJPY then the affect of Japan decision will be neglected on EURUSD , otherwise, we may see more downtrend on EURUSD.
Elliott Waves :
After concidering the option above we may see FEB till MAR little Weakness in USD as index in view of not ECB not offering the kind of new tools Draghi talking about ! .
Hence out of fundamental we placed 3 scanarios in EURUSD and will catch the joining waves and trade on it .
Scenario 1 :
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